Deal market update – M&A activity remains quiet amid uncertainty about trade and antitrust

In our previously published 2025 M&A outlook, we expected an uptick in M&A activity in 2025, albeit with a slower ramp-up following the change in administration. Thus far into May 2025, the M&A market has remained relatively quiet as potential dealmakers try to navigate the Trump Administration’s stance on trade and antitrust.

Through April 2025, the number of deals is down according to a recent article by The Wall Street Journal (citing data from LSEG). Further, global deal count in April 2025 fell to the lowest level in more than 20 years, according to data compiled by Dealogic for Reuters.

According to the LSEG report, there was no announcement of a deal valued over $10 billion globally in either January or February — the first time in over two years that was the case.

March and April saw a few greater than $10 billion deals announced, including the following in the US:

• Google announced an agreement to acquire Wiz, which dealmakers will likely follow closely to gauge the level of antitrust scrutiny it receives from the Trump Administration.

• Walgreens is to be acquired by Sycamore Partners, which will take it private.

• Global Payments has agreed to acquire Worldpay in the FinTech sector, which is also subject to regulatory review.

While M&A activity typically slows during the first few months of a new administration, this market has also been rattled by the trade war, continued higher borrowing costs, and uncertainty about how administration officials will view M&A deals that could have antitrust implications. The recent downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody’s is also adding volatility to financial markets.

The LSEG report said that dealmakers expect the Trump Administration agencies to be more flexible in approving deals than the Biden Administration. It should be noted that Capital One's previously announced $35 billion acquisition of Discover got conditional approval this month (the deal was announced in February 2024).

As the first quarter was coming to a close, amid uncertainty about Trump Administration policies, the number of transactions in the US and worldwide had fallen to its lowest level in more than a decade. Despite all the headwinds in the short-term, we remain cautiously optimistic for the second half of 2025.

‍